Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
